NIHR - Public health impact and social feasibility of basic income
NIHR funded a study entitled ‘Understanding the prospective public health impact and social feasibility of Universal Basic Income schemes in the UK’ (NIHR154451) which began in December 2022 with a final project report published with Compass and Autonomy in July 2023 available here.
We analysed how changes in income affected both mental and physical health among adults aged 18 and above over the course of 12 waves of data from Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study. We then combined this analysis with modelling of the impact of Basic Income systems on incomes to calculate how they would change people’s health and the cost-benefit associated with this.
IWe undertook conjoint experimental surveys with members of the public to identify which features of welfare systems, including both their design and their impact, influence perceptions most. We then combined this data with the estimates of health impact to create a publicly accessible Public Policy Preference Calculator (TriplePC) which predicts which schemes are likely to be most popular among the public overall and subgroups of it.
Finally, we held Citizen Engagement Workshops in Jarrow, South Tyneside, which has high unemployment levels, low wages and health problems to understand concerns about how Basic Income might be implemented. This is important for politicians and health professionals who need to know about sensitivities within communities targeted for ‘Levelling Up’ funding.
Key findings:
- Radical transformative and effective policies have been instituted over centuries – Basic Income is a feasible policy for today.
- Money affects health.
- Basic Income would have a significant impact on poverty and inequality.
- Basic Income schemes are likely to have a very significant impact as a preventative health measure, with significant social and economic returns on investment.
- Basic Income is popular, effects on poverty are particularly important and there are means of funding it that chime with public opinion.
- We can calculate which particular designs are likely to be preferred by the public based on the above findings.
- Members of local communities understand best the issues and health effects that might emerge from policies such as Basic Income, with concerns for safety important in pilots and recognition of the increased positive community activity that might result from a full policy.
Recommendations:
- Policymakers should commit to large trials of Basic Income, but not at the expense of pushing for its introduction as national policy.
- Policymakers should examine the potential health and economic impacts of Basic Income and explain them to voters using narratives tailored specifically to people’s circumstances.
- Trials should be evaluated comprehensively and consistently, using measures that can be microsimulated to estimate long-term effects across the population.
- Researchers and policymakers must engage in co-production with stakeholders to determine formulation of schemes and uphold concern for the interests of participants in pilots.
- Policymakers should be confident that Basic Income is the right policy at the right time.