{"id":2218,"date":"2023-10-27T12:51:48","date_gmt":"2023-10-27T11:51:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hosting.northumbria.ac.uk\/greensahara\/?page_id=2218"},"modified":"2023-10-27T12:56:42","modified_gmt":"2023-10-27T11:56:42","slug":"introduction-fr","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/hosting.northumbria.ac.uk\/greensahara\/introduction-fr\/","title":{"rendered":"Introduction-fr"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Introduction<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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\"R.
R. Shone<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>
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R. Shone<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>
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R. Shone<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>
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R. Shone<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>
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Bienvenue sur le site du Projet Pal\u00e9oclimat Tunisie ! <\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Depuis 2010, notre \u00e9quipe a renforc\u00e9 sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9terminer comment et pourquoi les pr\u00e9cipitations ont \u00e9volu\u00e9 par le pass\u00e9. Ces donn\u00e9es contribuent \u00e0 une meilleure pr\u00e9diction des futurs changements climatiques. L’Afrique du Nord, le Moyen-Orient et l’Asie du Sud-Ouest sont tous particuli\u00e8rement expos\u00e9s aux variations des pr\u00e9cipitations, car la disponibilit\u00e9 en eau contr\u00f4le la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation et limite les activit\u00e9s humaines. Si les pr\u00e9cipitations \u00e0 venir diminuent – comme cela semble probable – les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s subiront de fortes pressions. En tant que scientifiques, nous sommes mis au d\u00e9fi de fournir les meilleures pr\u00e9visions climatiques possibles. Pour ce faire, nous devons nous plonger dans le pass\u00e9.<\/p>

Nous savons que de grandes parties de l’Afrique du Nord \u00e9taient plus humides par le pass\u00e9. De nombreux lacs et rivi\u00e8res sont maintenant ass\u00e9ch\u00e9s et seul l’art rupestre t\u00e9moigne de ces paysages transform\u00e9s. Nos recherches \u00e9tudient ces indices pour r\u00e9v\u00e9ler comment les pr\u00e9cipitations r\u00e9gionales r\u00e9agissent aux changements climatiques. La temp\u00e9rature et la distribution de la chaleur, en particulier, sont deux param\u00e8tres importants pour le climat futur.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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De petits d\u00e9buts<\/u><\/p>

En 2010, Mike Rogerson et Dirk Hoffmann ont effectu\u00e9 une premi\u00e8re visite en Tunisie pour \u00e9valuer le potentiel scientifique. Avec l’aide du professeur Nejib Kallel, ils ont fait connaissance de notre grand ami Moez Mansoura et d\u00e9but\u00e9 une collaboration fructueuse avec l’Office National des Mines. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 Moez, nous avons d\u00e9couvert une communaut\u00e9 sp\u00e9l\u00e9ologique dynamique apportant un pr\u00e9cieux soutien sur le terrain (voir photo ci-dessus). Une visite de la Grotte de la Mine (ci-dessous) a permis d\u2019esquisser une strat\u00e9gie de recherche. Nous utiliserons des stalagmites comme enregistreurs du pass\u00e9 pour comprendre comment la pluie a chang\u00e9 dans la r\u00e9gion au fil du temps\u00a0!<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Nos id\u00e9es ont avanc\u00e9, \u00e9volu\u00e9 et m\u00fbri au cours des deux ann\u00e9es suivantes. Pendant ce temps, la Tunisie connaissait ses propres changements\u00a0menant \u00e0 la R\u00e9volution de 2011. Avec le soutien du Leverhulme Trust, nous avons r\u00e9uni un groupe international de scientifiques pour travailler sur cette th\u00e9matique. Pendant trois ans, nous nous sommes rencontr\u00e9s, avons \u00e9chang\u00e9 nos points de vue et visit\u00e9 de nombreuses cavit\u00e9s et sites pouvant nous renseigner sur les pr\u00e9cipitations pass\u00e9es en Tunisie. L’\u00e9quipe et le projet ont grandi, nos id\u00e9es se sont d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es. Nous nous sommes rendus dans des laboratoires pour analyser les \u00e9chantillons pr\u00e9lev\u00e9s lors de nos visites sur le terrain. Nous avons r\u00e9dig\u00e9 de nombreux projets de recherche, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce que notre chance vienne.<\/p>

Pluie dans le d\u00e9sert<\/u><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Gr\u00e2ce au g\u00e9n\u00e9reux financement du NERC, nous allons de l'avant avec une confiance renouvel\u00e9e. De 2022 \u00e0 2025, nous compl\u00e9terons notre compr\u00e9hension du pass\u00e9 reposant sur les enregistrements stalagmitiques par l\u2019information contenue dans les \"l\u0153ss\", ces tas de poussi\u00e8re qui s'accumulent dans les vall\u00e9es du sud de la Tunisie lorsque le climat est sec (voir ci-dessous). Nous combinerons ces enregistrements pour r\u00e9examiner les mod\u00e8les climatiques et \u00e9valuerons les pr\u00e9visions pour l'avenir. R\u00e9unir ces trois approches est un objectif scientifique \u00e0 part enti\u00e8re. Conscient du d\u00e9fi qui nous attend, nous sommes impatients de voir ce que nous trouverons au bout de l\u2019aventure. C'est ainsi que nous avons expliqu\u00e9 notre projet aux bailleurs de fonds.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Les r\u00e9gions tropicales semi-arides sont essentielles pour comprendre les t\u00e9l\u00e9connections climatiques \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle globale. Les populations vivant dans ces r\u00e9gions sont tr\u00e8s sensibles au changement climatique et une augmentation de l’aridit\u00e9 entra\u00eenerait de graves famines, un effondrement \u00e9conomique, des conflits et des migrations de r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s et \u00e9conomiques. Les mod\u00e8les de circulation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale utilis\u00e9s dans les rapports du GIEC indiquent que les r\u00e9gions arides sensibles conna\u00eetront un tel ass\u00e8chement au cours des prochains si\u00e8cles. Mais la confiance dans cette pr\u00e9diction n’est consid\u00e9r\u00e9e que comme “moyenne”, et se trouve \u00eatre en conflit avec les \u00e9tudes pal\u00e9oclimatiques qui indiquent que les p\u00e9riodes chaudes sont souvent corr\u00e9l\u00e9es avec des phases humides dans les r\u00e9gions sub-sahariennes de l’h\u00e9misph\u00e8re nord. Par cons\u00e9quent, les d\u00e9cideurs manquent de la clart\u00e9 requise pour planifier l’avenir. Ce projet rassemble une \u00e9quipe diversifi\u00e9e de pal\u00e9oclimatologues et de mod\u00e9lisateurs pour transformer la base empirique sur laquelle se fonde notre connaissance du climat en Afrique du Nord. En combinant l\u2019archive environnementale des grottes et des s\u00e9diments de surface, en appliquant des approches analytiques de pointe et en d\u00e9veloppant de nouveaux produits de mod\u00e9lisation prospective et d’assimilation de donn\u00e9es, nous am\u00e9liorerons consid\u00e9rablement notre connaissance des r\u00e9gions tropicales arides et leur r\u00e9action aux changements de temp\u00e9ratures globaux. Nous produirons de nouvelles donn\u00e9es \u00e0 la fois sur les changements lents du climat, caus\u00e9s par les modifications de l’orbite terrestre, mais aussi sur les changements rapides qui r\u00e9sultent de la variabilit\u00e9 du syst\u00e8me terrestre lui-m\u00eame. Comprendre les changements climatiques r\u00e9sultant de la variabilit\u00e9 naturelle am\u00e9liorera consid\u00e9rablement notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir, comprendre et att\u00e9nuer les probl\u00e8mes futurs. Au c\u0153ur de \u00ab\u00a0Pourquoi pleut-il dans le d\u00e9sert ?\u00a0\u00bb se trouve une pr\u00e9cieuse archive environnementale constitu\u00e9e de stalagmites et d\u2019un \u00e9pais tas de poussi\u00e8re transport\u00e9 par le vent (l\u0153ss). Couche apr\u00e8s couche au gr\u00e9 de l’eau s’infiltrant \u00e0 travers le toit de la grotte, les stalagmites enregistrent les p\u00e9riodes pluvieuses et informent sur les quantit\u00e9s d’eau fournie.<\/em> Lorsque l\u2019eau fait d\u00e9faut, la stalagmite cesse de cro\u00eetre et n\u2019enregistre donc plus le climat r\u00e9gional. Ainsi, la datation des phases de croissance d\u2019une stalagmite r\u00e9v\u00e8le quand la r\u00e9gion \u00e9tait humide. De plus, la chimie de la stalagmite informe sur l\u2019origine de l\u2019humidit\u00e9, la quantit\u00e9 de pr\u00e9cipitations et l’abondance de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation en surface. Les m\u00e9taux et les isotopes incorpor\u00e9s dans la calcite ainsi que les minuscules gouttes d’eau conserv\u00e9es entre les cristaux r\u00e9v\u00e8lent \u00e0 quel point l’Afrique du Nord \u00e9tait diff\u00e9rente par le pass\u00e9. Pour comprendre les p\u00e9riodes arides, nous nous int\u00e9resserons \u00e9galement aux d\u00e9p\u00f4ts de l\u0153ss accumul\u00e9s en surface. Ces d\u00e9p\u00f4ts de poussi\u00e8re contiennent des limons transport\u00e9s sur des centaines de kilom\u00e8tres et les grains de zircon peuvent \u00eatre dat\u00e9s en utilisant leur composition radio-isotopique. Leur \u00e2ge nous indique quand la roche m\u00e8re s’est form\u00e9e. Combin\u00e9e \u00e0 d’autres caract\u00e9ristiques chimiques, cette “empreinte digitale” permet de retracer leur transport jusqu’au site o\u00f9 nous les avons trouv\u00e9s. Ensemble, les stalagmites et la poussi\u00e8re nous diront quand et comment le climat a chang\u00e9 en Afrique du Nord et comment les temp\u00e9ratures globales affecte la pluviom\u00e9trie dans le d\u00e9sert. Avec ces nouvelles connaissances, nous pourrons tester les raisons de ces changements et pr\u00e9dire l’avenir avec beaucoup plus de confiance.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Plus \u00e0 venir.<\/u><\/p>

Notre projet actuel est passionnant et ambitieux, mais nos plans vont bien au-del\u00e0. Le climat de tout le continent africain est interconnect\u00e9, et nous joindrons nos efforts \u00e0 ceux de beaucoup d’autres dans un effort pour mieux comprendre l’ensemble du syst\u00e8me. Ce site Web \u00e9voluera pour communiquer ce que nous faisons et ce que nous avons d\u00e9couvert – nous esp\u00e9rons que vous nous accompagnerez dans ce voyage.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Introduction R. Shone R. Shone R. Shone R. Shone R. Shone R. Shone R. Shone Bienvenue sur le site du Projet Pal\u00e9oclimat Tunisie ! Depuis 2010, notre \u00e9quipe a renforc\u00e9 sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9terminer comment et pourquoi les pr\u00e9cipitations ont \u00e9volu\u00e9 par le pass\u00e9. Ces donn\u00e9es contribuent \u00e0 une meilleure pr\u00e9diction des futurs changements climatiques. 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